Commentary: Change
is Coming
Change is good. It can come in small ways or it can come as a tidal wave, washing away the collected debris of cluttered lives or closed minds. But it's something that always will happen, so we had best embrace it if we are to thrive in the world that follows. We had a taste of it in January, both in Washington and on Wall Street. Much of it was ugly, but much more of it was subtle. President Obama launched into a series of attacks on easy targets: Wall Street, “the big banks,” and “obscene bonuses,” promising new fees, restrictions on operations, and tighter oversight. Treasury Secretary Geithner was grilled before a Congressional panel composed of members of both parties, who seemed more intent on giving speeches than finding answers. What these temporary employees who run our government seem to be eternally oblivious to is the fact that the free market system will correct most excesses and ensure that profits flow to their proper destinations. The members of Congress were enablers of many of the bad things that happened, and they are becoming panicky about that as November draws near. For the stock market, a sell-off brought on by political bickering is a temporary change that should yield to more fundamental change as the noise dies away. Most stocks got instantly cheaper, and now investors can return to consideration of the earnings reports and guidance that is a more appropriate focus. Those with a long-term focus know that politicians come and go, but top-quality companies endure.
Change is also coming to this newsletter. We've listened to what readers have had to say – what they like, what they don't like, and what they'd like to see – and we'll be making those changes, beginning with the next issue. We think that you'll enjoy the changes, but please keep sending us feedback. Change is good.
Our Growth & Income model portfolio on page 5 enjoyed a positive change over the last three months, despite a late slide. An adjusted gain of $76,032 on October 27 turned into a profit of $87,775 on January 26. As mentioned in previous issues, we have incorporated the effect of interest earned on sales proceeds, which added $4,295 to the $71,737 gain shown in the November 1 issue. The overall effect of such interest is not as great for a portfolio of this type, which features relatively low turnover, as it was for our Speculative DRIP model, but it's a realistic addition to the modeling process. As mentioned last time, we're using the historic rates for one-month CDs as a close proxy for money market rates, which have varied from over 6% a decade ago to the current miniscule 0.16%. The ongoing opportunity in this group of companies is easily apparent to the long-term investor.
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